Abstract: When is a sexual offender no longer a sexual offender?

Sexual offenders are often perceived as presenting a substantial, enduring risk for sexual recidivism. This assumption is the foundation of policies in certain countries that require long-term or - even lifetime - registration. In this address I will present evidence that sexual recidivism risk declines substantially the longer individuals remain offence-free in the community, and that the likelihood of desistence is informed by the quality of current community adjustment. Specifically, based on an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples followed over 20 years, the sexual recidivism risk was cut in half for each 5 years the individuals remained offence-free. Whereas the 5 year sexual recidivism rate for high risk sex offenders was 22% from the time of release, this rate decreased to 4.2% for the offenders in the same static risk category who remained offence-free in the community for 10 years. For moderate risk and low risk sexual offenders, their sexual recidivism risk eventually declined to a level that was indistinguishable from the risk of “out of the blue” sexual offences by offenders with no history of sexual crime (1% to 2%). In the second study of 437 sexual offenders, problems during the first two years of community supervision (as measured by the ACUTE-2007) was associated with recidivism up to five years later. The results suggest that offence history is a valid, but time dependent, indicator of the propensity to sexually reoffend. The results also support previous research indicating that public safety can be enhanced by addressing the criminogenic needs of sexual offenders on community supervision.

R. Karl Hanson, Ph.D. is a Senior Research Scientist with Public Safety Canada and Adjunct Research Professor in the Psychology Department of Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada. Dr. Hanson is one of the leading researchers in the field of sexual offender risk assessment and treatment. Dr. Hanson has published more than 100 articles, including several significant meta-analyses, and was co-developer of the most widely used risk assessment tool for sexual offenders, including the Static- 99R and STABLE-2007. He is a Fellow of the Canadian Psychological Association, and was the 2002 recipient of the Significant Achievement Award from the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA).