Abstract: Predicting violent reoffending with the PCL-R/SV in German-speaking countries: A meta-analysis

International reviews attest to the criterion validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) and its screening version (PCL:SV) for violent offense recidivism, including sexual re-offending. Most of these studies are based on data from English-speaking countries. The talk will complement this knowledge with a meta-analysis of studies from German-speaking countries. The design of the meta-analysis was directed at the validity of common cut-off values: How likely would released offenders who surpassed common PCL-R/SV cutoffs recidivate? Using seven studies (total-N = 1,500 male offenders), average sensitivity and specificity of the PCL-R for violent recidivism were estimated at 23% and 90%, respectively. Individuals above the threshold were more than twice as likely to commit further violent (including sexual) offenses after release. The results with regard to sexual offending per se and with regard to the screening version of the PCL are less clear, also due to fewer studies. The implications for risk assessment will be highlighted, with special reference to the threshold-oriented mode of meta-analysis.

Dr. Mokros is a psychologist and working as quality and research representative at the Center for Forensic Psychiatry at the University Hospital of Psychiatry, Zurich, Switzerland. Dr. Mokros studied psychology at the universities of Bochum (Dipl.-Psych.) and Liverpool (M.Sc. in Investigative Psychology). He obtained his PhD in psychological methodology at the University of Wuppertal. Dr. Mokros has been working in forensic psychiatric hospitals since 2003. Between 2004 and 2011 he was a lecturer at the Department of Forensic Psychiatry of the University of Regensburg, Germany. His main research interests are: indirect assessment of pedophilic sexual preference; risk assessment; psychopathic personality; behavioral indicators of sexual sadism; Bayesian methods.