Abstract: Dynamic risk assessment using STABLE-2007: Updated follow-up and new findings from the Dynamic Supervision Project

Risk assessment is one of the most ubiquitous tasks of the criminal justice system. Many of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments focus on static (i.e., unchanging) risk factors, which are unable to detect changes in risk. More recent research has focused on how to incorporate dynamic (i.e., changeable) information into risk assessment. The Dynamic Supervision Project is a prospective field study aimed to validate the use of dynamic risk assessments for sex offenders being supervised across Canada (approximate n = 1,000). Preliminary results supported the use of STABLE-2007 and ACUTE-2007 in addition to Static-99. This workshop will present new findings from an update to this study that extends the average follow-up period from 3.5 years to approximately 8.5 years. The workshop will address topics such as using dynamic risk factors to examine long-term recidivism risk and methods of combining static and dynamic assessments of risk. Recommendations for best practice will be provided.

Leslie Helmus is a Ph.D student in forensic psychology at Carleton University in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, and a researcher with Public Safety Canada. Her research interests focus on the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders. She has been deeply involved in recent advances in structured risk assessment tools, including the development of STABLE-2007/ACUTE-2007, and developing and norming Static-99R and Static-2002R (as well as co-author of the coding rules for the latter). She has received numerous grants and academic awards including the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers Pre-doctoral Research Grant.