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Abstract: Recent Developments in Structured Professional Judgement in Risk Assessment for Intellectually Disabled Sex Offenders

The manual of the Assessment of Risk and Manageability of Intellectually Disabled IndividuaLs who Offend Sexually (ARMIDILO-S) states that the test is "a comprehensive risk review and community management instrument designed for use with cognitively impaired adults. It was designed to assist support workers, case managers, guardians, home providers, clinicians and program administrators in identification and management of risk for sexually inappropriate behaviour". What recent research has shown is that the ARMIDILO-S has very good predictive validity. It is the author's contention that the inclusion of environmental variables may be the factor that has raised the predictive accuracy of this instrument well above the usual AUC of .7 attained by most risk assessment measures.


Douglas P. Boer, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Clinical Psychology, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand

Dr. Boer began working at the University of Waikato in January of 2006. Prior to 2006 he worked for the Correctional Service of Canada for 15 years in a variety of contexts including sex offender therapist and treatment programme supervisor. He has also published a number of articles and structured clinical assessment manuals for use with sexual offenders, most notably helping to co-author the Sexual Violence Risk – 20 (the SVR-20) and the Assessment of Risk and Manageability of Intellectually Disabled IndividuaLs who Offend - Sexually (the ARMIDILO-S).
Dr Boer continues to publish and present in the area of risk assessment of offenders. He is the New Zealand editor of the journal "Sexual Abuse: Australia, New Zealand" and is on several other editorial boards, including the IATSO e-journal "Sex Offender Treatment", "The Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research" and the "British Journal of Forensic Practice".
Finally, Dr Boer remains active as a clinician and assessor, working primarily with multi-diagnosed and/or brain-damaged and/or intellectually-disabled offenders.

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